Vaccine nationalism is the practice of richer countries vaccinating their citizens before poorer countries. This is becoming a major problem as India, the biggest vaccine producer in the world, now has a Mumbai variant that has led in just a few days to cases well over 200,000 per day. India is not known as a testing power house, so the actual figures are much higher.
What we are seeing in the second half of 2021 is B.1.1.7 spreading also to Africa and poorer countries in the world that will suffer much more due to lower healthcare conditions. We have already seen Brazil’s healthcare system fail, city after city with deaths per day reaching around 4,000. This is why vaccine treatments that have been shown to lower mortality should be given as rollouts in addition to vaccines.
As of mid April, 2021 we can safely say vaccine rollouts are failing to stem the pandemic. Only Israel with rates above 60% shows a true return to normal. For the U.K. and the U.S., it’s still too soon to say and they have likely opened back up too quickly to avoid another surge.
So what is $RLFTF? They are a little Swiss biotech firm that could help protect our lungs in the Third Wave. With a perfect safety record, I think we’ll be seeing ZYESAMI™ be given EUAs given the serious setback in the pandemic and accelerating exponential rise of B.1.1.7 and other VOC. There’s some evidence P1 is evolving in Brazil to become more vaccine resistant.
P1 has also spread in other places in the world like Western Canada and Ontario. At this point, given the impact of the 4th wave on young people being hospitalized in the U.S. and all over the world with the VOC, we have to fast-track the treatments that work the best.
The Mumbai variant in India is also impacting young people at an increased rate which is worrying the scientific community. Vaccine rollouts are insufficient to stem the onslaught. Relief Therapeutics’ treatment in ZYESAMI™ has pretty robust findings in its impact with proven and marked reductions in deaths in ICU.
In places like Brazil they are running out of sedatives, so to have patients hooked up to breathing machines is sadly almost a form of torture. The worst part is that the suffering in Brazil and India is what will happen to poorer countries, especially in Africa at a scale we cannot imagine, at a time when richer western countries will have been vaccinated.
This is one of the ugliest dilemmas of the K-shaped recovery. It doesn’t only foster wealth inequality in richer countries, but in the world as a whole.
Vaccine nationalism is also a distinct problem because poorer countries will only have access to “lower quality” vaccines. Chinese vaccines, for instance in Chile, have shown poor performance. Russia’s vaccine is now going to be one of the most produced but its capability is not likely to be great against the VOC. Treatments and Covid-19 ICU therapies are more important than ever.
As a stock $RLF.SW is $0.25 and $RLFTF is $0.27. They have been hard hit by a penny stock bear market that shows no signs of slowing down. This downward pressure means most stocks below $5 are getting blown out in a mean reversion that suggests retail traders are leaving the stock market due to its inflated bubble-like characteristics.
And liquidity is flowing into value stocks suggestive of a U.S. economic recovery like cyclicals, financials, energy, BigTech and companies with enormous balance sheets and cash piles. This means momentum growth stocks that are pre-profitability, like small biotech companies, are becoming less valuable very rapidly in the second half of 2021.
However what would happen if Relief Therapeutics got an EUA in the U.S. and other countries, as seems inevitable as this point? In spite of a vaccine drive in the first half of 2021, the U.S. remains very vulnerable to another surge. America’s politicization of masks, anti-vaccine movement (boosted by social amplification from Russia), and citizens with poor control signify the U.S. is all but guaranteed to have more states return to Michigan-like situations.
Michigan’s surge isn’t a mystery, it’s what B117 does to younger people. The U.S. is not admitting this due to its vaccine rollout and huge QE and stimulus push. The mixed messages are creating a prophecy of doom in America today. Minnesota will be next and a cascade of B117 on young people is inevitable, even as the U.S. still has over 70,000 cases a day (higher actually since their testing isn’t good).
So what are we trying to suggest? Therapies and treatments for ICUs is critical. Whether you are in Sao Paulo or Mumbai or Toronto, you need and deserve the treatment that’s most likely to help save your life. According to its 2b/3 trials, there is a fair chance that’s actually ZYESAMI™.
Their U.S. partner NeuroRx said: In addition to the robust overall significance across all 196 treated patients at all 10 clinical sites, the prespecified analysis of recovery from respiratory failure is clinically and statistically significant in the 127 patients treated by High Flow Nasal Cannula (HFNC) (P = .02), compared to those treated with mechanical or noninvasive ventilation at tertiary care hospitals.
In Europe, the situation is pretty dire already in the third wave, especially in countries that are poor enough to have relatively depleted healthcare systems. These include countries with among the worst deaths by Covid-19 per 1 million citizens.
They are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Belgium, Slovakia, Italy, Portugal, Poland, Croatia and so many others. With ICUs filling up, nursing shortages and other issues, you want a treatment that can reduce ICU stay. At the Last Futurist, we find it abhorrent that we must wait for EUAs for treatments, when technically the world needs them the most.
In a political game of vaccines and vaccine nationalism, the VOC don’t care about national boundaries. They don’t even care how much of your population has been vaccinated. They don’t care how old you are. That’s what a pandemic really feels like, and finally in 2021 we are starting to realize what we are up against. That’s not fear speaking, that’s common sense. Unfortunately vaccine nationalism is elitist, it’s not about common sense.
Even India now needs to use its considerable vaccine production for its own public health crisis. You can’t blame them. The Comvax vaccine sharing program of the WHO is beginning to fail, and I worry for Africa in a big way. I predicted India would be hard hit right when the pandemic began. India is at the center of the pandemic now, not just because of the Mumbai variant, but because it’s such an immense vaccine producer.
EUAs for Covaxin ($OCGN) and ZYESAMI™ and two of the most potentially outstanding issues in the Third Wave, and investors can take notice. Treatments and vaccines targeting the VOC are critical, since it will take time to roll them out to the most impacted areas in the world.
For more insights on Relief Therapeutics, search “RLFTF” at the bottom of our home page in the search bar on the bottom right. We won’t repeat the same information. As B.1.1.7 reaches 90% of Covid-19 cases in the world, an exponential increase in global cases is imminent in the fall of 2021 and winter of 2022.
A few regions in the world won’t be impacted, including Taiwan, New Zealand, Israel and potentially Australia and many parts of China. However for the rest of the world, there are dark days ahead.
Vaccine nationalism is akin to global genocide due to wealth inequality. We will see this as things become more serious, and it boosts the necessity of at least having the best treatments available. When Brazil is running out of sedatives and Ontario is running out of nurses, you see how the crisis could unfold in other parts of the world relatively quickly. A European EUA for ZYESAMI™ is likely to come before a U.S. one. We literally don’t have time to wait.
At the Last Futurist, we have now entered a position in $RLFTF. At $0.27 we feel it’s significantly undervalued compared to the impact it will have on treatment during the pandemic, where ICU hospitalization of young people is becoming a global health crisis that we were not told would occur. The contradictory information and poor WHO leadership is a serious cause for concern.
Vaccine nationalism and the pandemic are also creating geopolitical stress on the borders of Taiwan and the Ukraine. In the event of invasions the stock market would have a correction in the area of 20-35%. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the China-Russia alliance is using this uncertainty to create more leverage for their self interests.
As the Third Wave accelerates with the natural spread of B117, that has a higher viral load and impacts younger people more easily, vaccine nationalism will stress existing geopolitical alliances and rivalries.
If there is a stock market correction at the top, penny stocks could see resurgence reminiscent of the one we witnessed between May and February of last year. China will certainly use the failure of Covax to its advantage as has Russia with its Sputnik V vaccine. Even South Korea will now produce Sputnik V. This suggests vaccine nationalism and the pandemic are impacting how nation states behave in the crisis.
Forget death and taxes, this is all about death, politics and stimulus games. Russia and China will exploit the need of developing countries for profit, as Western nations fail to share the vaccines they have in an adequate manner. We’ve never witnessed in our lifetime a public health crisis so confused by politics, information and a serious leadership crisis in some parts of the world.
If you think the Mumbai variant is bad in India, just wait until you see what happens to Africa in 2022. What has happened to South America in 2021 is a stark reminder of our global wealth inequality. When you let Brazil run out of sedatives, something is very wrong with this humanity. ZYESAMI™ could be among the most helpful therapies and treatments for ICU patients in the future of the pandemic in late 2021 and 2022-2023.