In 2020 we have seen a lack of data transparency with a novel coronavirus mean that China could accelerate its economic growth faster than any other country in the world. In 2020 we also witnessed a new kind of diplomacy by China that ranges from singling out smaller countries to more rhetoric over a trade war that has escalated tensions with the United States of America.
Given the future of the business world, at the Last Futurist we see the rise of China as one of the main drivers for technology in the 2020s and for the 21st century.
With the advent of China’s digital Yuan, you can see how China has outmaneuvered the U.S. in innovation. And its capital markets have become the new smart place to be in 2021 with the epic IPO of Ant Group on Thursday which will be the biggest in history.
Alibaba-owned South China Morning Post has become the new propaganda space for articles about China’s looming greatness. With global GDP declining and China’s increasing, you have to wonder what kind of a world we are heading to.
China’s Version of Capitalism is State Ownership and Mafia Capitalism
China weaponizes its consumers against the products of countries it doesn’t like, while practicing a kind of Mafia capitalism in how it influences other countries. As unfair as U.S. capitalism can be for the rest of the world, China has a talent for getting countries indebted to it.
China’s genocide at home in Xinjiang is well known as is its takeover of Hong Kong and growing threats to Taiwan. China could herald a new kind of threat to global freedom, peace and prosperity.
China unveiled the first glimpses of its economic plans for the next five years, promising to build the nation into a technological powerhouse as it emphasized quality growth over speed. China has a military alliance with Russia and India has joined the United States.
China’s technological, economic and militaristic influence is only going to grow and a direct confrontation with the rest of the world only becomes more probable.
China’s potential is greater than most realize. China will aim to reach GDP per capita levels similar to that of South Korea, Israel or Spain over the next 15 years. The GDP per capita of these countries are $35,000-40,000 in today’s prices, compared with China’s $10,261 in 2019.
China’s investment in artificial intelligence, surveillance capitalism and state-backed global corporations means it will do the majority of the innovation in the 21st century.
Alibaba’s Single’s Day is the biggest global retail event by far. Ant Group is set on Thursday to raise $34.5 billion, valuing it at over $313 billion, in the biggest IPO of all time.
China will catch up in the Cloud, its chip supply chain and AI by 2030. This will mean the Chinese consumer won’t just be king, its Communist Party might become the Emperor of the world.
China’s war against the United States in a sense already began the moment it didn’t cancel flights out of Wuhan. China’s digital Yuan aims to halt U.S. ‘dollarization’, boost retail payments and its capital markets expansion of the early 2020s will be one of the greatest expansions of wealth the world has ever witnessed. The Yuan will be the global reserve currency by as early as 2026-2029.
China Will Pay to Win in the Future of Innovation
The new 5-year plan elevated China’s self-reliance in technology into a national strategic pillar, a move signaled by officials from President Xi Jinping in the lead up to the meeting. What this suggests is China won’t just be the equal of America in the 2020s, it will be the decisive decade when China outstrips the U.S. in all the categories that matter.
This means China’s aggressive stance on diplomacy in 2020 is likely just a hint of how the future will unfold for anyone that stands against China.
In the new plan China may target a higher spending in education and R&D (possibly 3% of GDP by 2025). China’s ability to invest in itself will fuel new companies that will one day dominate the world. China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, says China must actively cooperate with all countries, regions and enterprises, including those in the U.S., but the reality is China will continue to exert tremendous pressure in its push for global influence in all sectors.
This likely includes taking over Taiwan in the 2021 to 2025 period and a continued persecution of religions minorities within China. There will be more guerilla-like influence on countries such as Australia, Canada, South America (wrecked by Covid-19) and Europe.
In the ruins of the pandemic, China really has a much stronger position. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has ratcheted up military activity and China’s technological sector is like a secret police. New world order, anyone?
China’s Capital Markets and Digital Yuan Are Disruptive to U.S. Dominance
Ant Group would raise $34.5 billion in its dual initial public offering and a cashless China with a digital Yuan is a China ahead of the world. China has more startups, more winners, more innovation of companies at scale than any other country today, and it’s not even close.
China has more AI talent in the pipeline than anyone. Soon China will have the engineers, the wealth and the force to change the world. Those countries who oppose China could face dire consequences.
Ant Group is just a Fin-tech company but think of the scale here. Ant’s valuation based on the pricing would be $313.37 billion, larger than some of the biggest banks in the U.S., including Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. Alipay isn’t even as ubiquitous as WeChat pay.
China’s digital Yuan will further Chinese companies over their competitors. China is being more strategic in its long-term vision of a new kind of world in the 21st century.
What does this mean for human rights and the evolution of surveillance capitalism? None of the futurists in America dare talk about it. A world where China dominates is a world where companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Google are the last line of defense against a Chinese owned internet that will only grow in influence, scale, wealth and technological superiority. As recently as 2015 this would all have sounded absurd, but fast forward five years and we are already seeing the different world that’s coming into being.
The rise of China is inevitable but how will the world change along with it? Ant Group is expected to start trading in Hong Kong on Nov. 5, according to the regulatory filing. Three days after the U.S. election, the moment the world changes is when it realizes a post covid-19 world is one owned by China. Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan are small change compared to what China will do to the world. A sleeping giant is waking up.
The Last Futurist covers China Tech because we recognize it is one of the main meta trends of the 21st century. China’s digital currency aims to push back against U.S. dollar hegemony and boost retail payments and it will accomplish its task at scale.
China is winning on nearly every battlefield. Its lack of data transparency about the pandemic and its virus from a lab is the stuff of science fiction movies. But it worked. It accomplished its aim. The U.S. is under attack in more ways than anybody is talking about, and the global economy of 2021 will further understand this that we do today.
China’s Domination of Surveillance Capitalism Won’t Be Pretty
China doesn’t just innovate in a secular world, it will transform the world digitally and with facial recognition with very specific policies and morals. China’s repression of minorities and it social credit system is an engineered kind of capitalism. It’s not free market capitalism as we know it.
It’s a hack on the global system. The GDP depression of the pandemic is the coming-out party for China and China is the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about openly.
By 2025 China will catch the U.S. economically. By 2028 China will achieve superiority technologically. By 2032 the Chinese internet will disrupt the American version in a bifurcated world. China will lead the space race, the biotechnology revolution and potentially a World War III.
China’s conquest of consumerism will be total and its global diplomacy will be brutal. From IP theft to cybersecurity expertise, China has won before the cold tech wars have really even started.
China is the totalitarian state of the 21st century and the pandemic is its wave of influence. If you think China’s diplomacy bullies in 2020, you haven’t seen anything yet. If you think Chinese companies show scale, just wait and see. If you think the U.S. can compete vs. China, you are sadly mistaken.