In early 2021 there are a lot of companies touting their horn about being so-called leaders in the advent of the EV Bus. Here are the tickers to be aware of:
- $ACTC – Proterra
- $NGA – Lion Electric (March SPAC)
At the Last Futurist while we admit the EV sector is a gigantic bubble (think Tesla, Nio, Xpeng), there are some players to be had here (GM, VW, Toyota). The new EV startups will be operating in an ultra competitive world and the same could be said for the electric bus market.
President-elect Joe Biden drafted a plan to replace 500,000 school buses in the U.S. with zero-emission carriers by 2030, and Canadian electric vehicle maker Lion Electric plans to capitalize on the opportunity. Outside of the electric school bus market, Lion Electric, which plans to go public via a blank-check merger in March, has a deal to produce 2,500 electric trucks for Amazon by 2025. It certainly has potential but BYD and Proterra are much more established.
The global electric bus market is dominated by major players such as BYD (China), Yutong (China), Proterra (US), VDL Group (Netherlands), and AB Volvo (Sweden).
Amazon plans to procure up to 2,500 all-electric Lion 6 and Lion 8 trucks from Canadian manufacturer Lion Electric by 2025. It’s looking like Chinese suppliers will dominate South American demand. BYD has recently won the largest pure-electric bus order outside of China, in Columbia to be exact.
I think the best play here is actually Proterra. “Blank check” ArcLight Clean Transition Corp. is set to merge with commercial electric vehicle company Proterra in what Chamath Palihapitiya calls his “biggest investment in climate change.” Chamath is your classic pumper, but I think Proterra is better financed long term to out-compete Lion Electric in North America.
Palihapitiya led a round of $415 million in private investment in public equity (PIPE) in Proterra, with the likes of Daimler Trucks, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC, as well as funds managed by BlackRock tagging along. Those are some decent names.
Look how cool the UK’s Arrival busses are. I think China will in the end win this sector with a bunch of EV startups under the radar. For delivery vans I think Rivian is just going to be huge, eventually acquired by Amazon. Aurora will likely also be acquired by Amazon for its AV tech.
Lion Electric began selling electric school buses in 2016 and reports having more than 300 vehicles currently operating on roads. That’s an interesting first comer in the EV bus sector. However, Proterra is North America’s number one EV bus original equipment manufacturer, boasting over a decade of experience in the industry. This is going to be pretty lucrative. $ACTC is about $24.50 at the time of writing, while $NGA is $33. If Amazon can’t acquire Rivian, it may just acquire Lion Electric.
Do your own due diligence but monitor for new emerging players in the EV bus sector. It’s going to be a pretty important sector in the great green shift.
- Check out Proterra’s website here.
- Check out Lion Electric’s website here.