Ever wonder why the second wave seems to move faster? Is it just a more exponential acceleration of more people having it or are there mutations taking place that could impact the spread?
With more parts of Europe under a second economic shutdown, we have to wonder.
A new variant of the coronavirus, identified as 20A.EU1 by researchers from Switzerland and Spain, was first observed in Spain in June. It’s now becoming the dominant strain. Elsewhere, the new variant of the coronavirus has increased from “very low” values prior to July 15th to 40% to 70% in Switzerland, Ireland and the U.K. in September. It was also found to be prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands and France.
While cases in Europe seem to have tremendous positive rates in places like Belgium, The Czech Republic and France, how far has the new strain come?
A variant of the coronavirus that is believed to have originated in Spain has spread across Europe and now accounts for most of the new cases reported in several countries in the region, according to the findings of a new study. There’s no evidence yet that it’s more contagious. We speculate that it’s likely to be, however.
The research, which is due to published on Thursday and has not been peer reviewed, details how an international team of scientists has closely monitored the coronavirus through its genetic mutations. Here’s what we do know:
Sequences in this cluster (20A.EU1) differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions, including the mutation A222V in the spike protein and A220V in the nucleoprotein.
It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries. The Last Futurist believes it has some natural selection advantages and is likely to be more contagious.
The authors of the study were comprised of researchers from the University of Basel, the Biomedicine Institute of Valencia and the University of Valencia, among others. A second economic contraction is likely as the Second Wave is already leading to more lockdowns. It doesn’t matter what you call them.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday announced a “light lockdown,” with bars, restaurants, gyms, cinemas and theaters to close from next week. In a similar move, French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed a second nationwide lockdown from Friday, with only schools and factories to remain open — in contrast to March, when these were also shut. This is the week of October 26th, 2020.
Relaxed travel rules was the worst idea last summer. Today we are seeing $Trillions of dollars of shutdowns due to a few weeks of fun. That’s not good leadership. Just ask Belgium.
Europe has recorded almost 10 million cases of the coronavirus, according to the WHO, with 273,678 related deaths. That’s nothing compared to what we’ll see in the U.S. this winter. We’ve only seen 45 million cases of this Covid-19 so far. We’re going to see many times that multiple in 2021 alone. We’ve only seen 1.18 million deaths, how many more deaths will follow?
The U.S. is seeing over 75,000 cases a day. This is with poor testing. Brazil and India are both seeing over 500 deaths per day, and Russia’s is quickly rising. Mexico, Iran and Poland are not far behind. Nobody is equipped to deal with this virus, not to mention the possibility of a more contagious strain.
The strain is a coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers. Its appearance is thought to be linked to a super spreader event among agricultural workers in north-eastern Spain. The variant then quickly conquered all of Spain, 12 European countries, even reaching as far as Hong Kong and New Zealand. I predict it will become the dominant strain by the spring of 2021.
“From the spread of 20A.EU1, it seems clear that the measures in place were often not sufficient to stop onward transmission of introduced variants this summer,” said the study’s first author, Emma Hodcroft. Pressure to re-open society and “bounce back” from the 1st wave was absurd, from a perspective of human lives or public health. But politicians are a fickle bunch. They don’t see the big picture.
It is important to note that there is currently no evidence linking this new variant to an increase in the transmission of the virus or to a different course of the disease. However I think over time we’ll gain evidence that it is more contagious. That’s our coronavirus conspiracy prediction for 2021. Remember the name: 20A.EU1.